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- My personal pantheon (of the great and the good in survey research)
- Recent and planned activities
- Textbooks for Research Methods and Data Analysis
- 1: Survey Analysis Workshop (SPSS)
- 1a: Statistical concepts and methods
- 1b: Teaching with Survey Data
- 1c: Developing research projects using survey data
- 1d: Workshop and presentations for ASSESS (SPSS users in Europe)
- 2: Survey Research Practice
- 2a: Survey Research Methodology, Practice and Training
- 2b: Major survey series
- 3: Subjective Social Indicators (Quality of Life)
- 4: Survey Unit, Social Science Research Council (UK)
- 5a: Polytechnic of North London (1976-1992)
- 5b: Survey Research Unit (1978-1992)
- Village life in Normandy
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- Origins of the British Crime Survey
- British Crime Survey
Election poll débâcles
[New page 16 Nov 2015]
In the case of elections, polls can sometimes get things spectacularly wrong, as in the USA in 1948 (Dewey/Truman) and the UK in 1970 (Heath/Callaghan) and 2015 (Cameron/Miliband)
In the case of elections, polls can sometimes get things spectacularly wrong, as in the USA in 1948 (Dewey/Truman) and the UK in 1970 (Heath/Callaghan) and 2015 (Cameron/Miliband)
USA 1948 (Dewey - Truman)
References to be added
UK 1970 (Heath - Callaghan)
The British General Election of 1970
in Frank Teer & James Spence
Political Opinion Polls
(Hutchinson & Co, London, 1973)
Public Polls and Private Polls
in David Butler and Michael Pinto-Duschinsky
The British General Election of 1970
(Macmillan, 1971)
There was also a 1972 report by the Market Research Society (see Appendix in the first item above for possible causes)
. . and a 1971 working paper:
Richard Rose
The Polls and the 1970 General Election
(Occasional Paper no 7, University of Strathclyde Survey Research Centre, 1971).
UK 2015 (Cameron - Miliband)
What the BES face-to-face report tells us about what went wrong
(blog from UK Polling Report)
The Benefits of Random Probability Sampling: The 2015 BES Face-to-Face
(blog from the BES team)
2015 Cathie Marsh Memorial Lecture
Prof Patrick Sturgis (University of Southampton)
What does the failure of the polls tell us about the future of survey research? (Video)
Chaired by Jil Matheson (previously Government Statistician)
(Also on YouTube Live stream recording: total length 2 hr 8 min: lecture proper starts about 20 mins in and lasts approx one hour, followed by questions and comments)
A link has now been added to the impressive accompanying slideshow which cannot be seen clearly in the video and which also covers some of earlier débâcles above.
(blog from UK Polling Report)
The Benefits of Random Probability Sampling: The 2015 BES Face-to-Face
(blog from the BES team)
2015 Cathie Marsh Memorial Lecture
Prof Patrick Sturgis (University of Southampton)
What does the failure of the polls tell us about the future of survey research? (Video)
Chaired by Jil Matheson (previously Government Statistician)
(Also on YouTube Live stream recording: total length 2 hr 8 min: lecture proper starts about 20 mins in and lasts approx one hour, followed by questions and comments)
A link has now been added to the impressive accompanying slideshow which cannot be seen clearly in the video and which also covers some of earlier débâcles above.